"Unmasking the Fears and Prejudices That Blind Us" – How to Find a Black Cat in a Dark Room
The world you see might be an illusion.
Psychologist Gottman once proposed a famous formula for predicting the likelihood of divorce. In just 15 minutes with a newlywed couple, he can forecast their marital future with an astonishing 90% accuracy. How does he manage this?
Negative Bias
Before we delve into his formula, we must first understand the concept of "negative bias."
In everyday life, negative events tend to have a far greater impact on us than positive ones. For example, during a pleasant trip, one small unpleasant experience can instantly overshadow all the good memories. Similarly, when scrolling through short videos, a series of entertaining clips can be wiped away by a single sad video.
Our brains seem to be hardwired to be especially sensitive to memories of anger and sadness. Faced with surrounding stimuli, our mind would rather sound 99 false alarms than miss one genuine threat. This intense "loss aversion" makes it all too easy for the happiness we’ve so painstakingly built up to be shattered by a single mishap—a principle that Gottman uses to predict divorce.
Within a mere 15 minutes of observing a couple, he evaluates the ratio of positive to negative emotions, gestures, and body language. If this ratio falls below 5:1, the risk of divorce is high. In other words, one negative comment must be counterbalanced by at least five positive ones. So, if you find yourself nagging or complaining about your partner over trivial matters, be sure to follow up with five compliments.
His remarkably accurate predictions hinge on one key concept—negative bias. In couples headed for divorce, the positive-to-negative ratio often hovers around 3:4, whereas in enviable relationships, it can soar to 20:1 or even higher.
Five Regrets
Beyond negative bias, the book also catalogs a host of other biases in life. For instance, our fear of missing out often outweighs our appreciation for what we already have; we tend to believe rumors instead of seeking evidence; and the more inept we are, the harder it is to admit our own ignorance. These biases cloud our vision, preventing us from seeing things as they truly are—and ultimately steering us toward the very outcomes we wish to avoid.
Happiness is like that black cat quietly waiting in a dark room. Only by overcoming our biases and seeing the world as it is can we gradually bring that cat into the light.
A hospice caregiver named Brony Weil once surveyed people nearing the end of their lives to learn their greatest regrets. The five most common were:
I wish I hadn't worked so hard.
I wish I had had the courage to express my true feelings.
I wish I had kept in touch with my friends.
I wish I had made myself happier.
These might not seem particularly difficult to achieve, so why do so many people carry these regrets at the end of their lives?
Happiness is like a pitch-black cat hiding in a room, waiting for us to find it. Yet our fears, narcissism, and biases have effectively switched off the lights in that room, making it incredibly hard to locate the cat in the dark.
In his book, author Jacob Black draws on his extensive experience in psychology, science, and the arts to summarize over 30 different biases—and offers strategies to overcome them. Perhaps this book can light a beacon in our hearts. If you’re intrigued, give it a read.
Finally, here is a quote from the book to conclude today’s reading:
— How to Find a Black Cat in a Dark Room
How to Find a Black Cat in a Dark Room
- Author: Jacob Burak
- Publication Year: 2024.3
- Category: Life Philosophy
— From @不略
